How risky is it for the economy that people withdraw money from banks massively?

It all started with the hashtag #NoAlGrupoAval on Twitter and Facebook, which on the weekend stoked controversy in social networks and posed an ethical dilemma. However, will these threats materialize and can one speak of a financial panic?

In the face of the controversy generated by the #NoAlGrupoAval movement, some users expressed disagreement with the fact that the government was against denouncing the financial group for its ethical acts, informing its intention of a mass withdrawal of its financial products. There was the talk of financial panic, however, how true is this? It all started when Twitter generated a wave of trends of those who know how to build around a ‘hashtag’.

The #NoAlGrupoAval, #MeVoydeAval and even one or another #AlGrupoAvalNoLeDoyMiAval put in the eye of the hurricane the situation that crosses the financial conglomerate composed of banks AV Villas, Banco Popular, Banco de Occidente and Banco de Bogotá, and AFP Porvenir, belonging to the businessman Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo.

This was based on the knowledge that the controller of the Ruta del Sol consortium, Jorge Pizano, had made about bribes imposed by the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht and its partner in Colombia, Corficolombiana, and of which the current Attorney General of the Nation, Néstor Humberto Martínez, and at that time lawyer of Corficolombiana (also of the Organization Sarmiento Angulo) and of the Aval Group, would have knowledge.

In some audios revealed by Channel One even Martinez is heard stating that Sarmiento was aware of the situation. In what has been one of the largest cases of corruption in Latin American history, some users said that in the form of social condemnation they would withdraw their savings from the accounts of Aval, a group that for years had been well received due to good business alliances with events and concerts, among others.

In view of this situation, the Financial Superintendent, Jorge Castaño, stated that they would proceed to denounce the accounts that are trying to promote this type of message. “Nobody wins when we are motivating or infusing this level of panic because this is only against ourselves … I call for objectivity, greater criteria when reviewing the messages that circulate on social networks, ” he said at the conference of the capital market organized by Asobancaria.

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In response, the political activist Maria Fernanda Carrascal shared a message that resounded throughout the networks: “What abuse. We Colombians cannot choose the bank where we want to have our financial products. In an intimidating manner, they threaten criminal charges against those of us who have promoted a just and legitimate protest against Sarmiento Angulo for ethical reasons. ”

The mess was enlarged when many sectors supported what was said by the superintendent, as the case of the vice president of the republic, Marta Lucia Ramirez: “It is very urgent that the prosecution process the criminal complaint filed by the bank superintendent Jorge chestnut, against those who are speculating about financial entities to cause economic panic that would end the assets of all Colombians, “he said on his Twitter.

However, Personal Finance spoke with experts to explain how serious it is for the Colombian economy that this type of event occurs.

Ómar Patiño, full professor of the Faculty of Administration, Finance and Economic Sciences of the EAN University, affirms that ” we can not talk about generating an economic panic because we are talking about a single banking group. Regardless of size, an economic risk to the economy does not exist. A person may decide to move their funds from one bank to another, usually with the intention of moving the payroll, for business or cost issues. ”

If we spoke of economic panic, we would have to evoke the financial crisis of the 2000s in the United States, when people went to the banks to withdraw their deposits. “When this kind of thing happens there is a financial panic because it affects the entire financial system, and since a bank does not have its own money to lend, but rather lends what its clients put through the deposit, then the sector would go into insolvency. because there is no way to support the obligations of customers. When it is only one, that does not happen because the one that can get to have problems is that group of banks nothing more, “he says.

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On the other hand Wilson Rodriguez, professor of Finance at the University of La Sabana says that yes we could talk about economic panic because some people said they were going to seize the accounts of the Aval Group in the United States, “that makes people they scare and want to take out the resources of the bank under false information “.

In the case of the series of tweets that campaigned for people to change banks for moral reasons, “in that case there is no false information but simply it is motivating people so that in their free right to decide in which financial institution they have their deposits make a change of bank, “says Rodriguez.

Therefore, if you want to establish your position against Luis Carlos Sarmiento, you cannot be criminally accused of inciting your friends, relatives, and acquaintances to leave a specific financial institution, as long as you do not commit falsehoods.

A well-known case brings up the subject, when in 1999 José Omar Olaya Rivera, 24, of the time, informed by email that Davivienda was bankrupt. That caused the savers to withdraw more than $ 30,000 million in a single day. Olaya made the mistake of sending the message “you see what happened? Ja. Ja “and was arrested for generating economic panic over the Internet.

“When the rumor about Davivienda occurred, we were presenting a financial crisis in the country, the intervention of the Pacifico and Granahorrar banks had already taken place and people clearly had a fear of the banks because every day they heard news that there were problems, in this case, since we are not in the same context, one would think that it would not happen in the same way, “says Rodríguez.

On whether so much fuss could really make a dent in the coffers of the employer, the truth is that like everything in social networks, many times there is much talk but little is done. “What has been demonstrated in these days since the campaign began is that it has not had the reception of a good number of depositors. The effect has been marginal even in the fall of the shares of Grupo Aval in both the United States and Colombia, the shares have fallen but nothing worrying or nothing to show that the shock was due precisely to such campaigns on social networks.

What can happen in case of a financial run?

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In the financial system there is something called fractional reserve which means that if you deposit 10 million pesos in a bank, of those 10 million the bank keeps 1 million and takes the remaining 9 to lend them, then ” when there is a run of that type people go massively to get their savings but as most of those resources were lent to other people the bank will not have all the resources to return, “explains Professor Rodriguez.

“In those cases, the Central Bank is called upon to open a line of credit, depending on the financial strength of the bank and its reserve amounts. The muscle they have in reserves will depend on how strong the blow they are and how bad the bank run is. ”

However, since the crisis of 1999, the Colombian financial system is taking care of itself in health and that is why the Fund for Guarantees of Financial Institutions (Fogafin) was created. What it does is answer for up to 50 million pesos in the savings deposits that it has. , so that at the time of occurrence some extreme eventuality, as it would not happen in this case, your money is not at risk.

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With 30 seconds of this habit, you will have a bright future

When you feel that you are wasting your time on social networks or at the end of the day you think that time flew by, then stop and take advantage to change bad habits.

We can say that in the technological era we were never so connected and we have huge opportunities. For example, with the birth of the Internet, it seemed amazing to be able to send an email to that person in seconds when the letters took at least 10 days and a month for a friend who lived on the other side of the world.

Or what to say the electronic commerce where a person can buy from wherever he is what he wants and have it shipped from anywhere. We can even listen to our favorite music from the cell phone without saving any playlist in the phone memory. Those are just admirable examples of the era we live.

But also, the digital abuse takes us away, we abstract and we become robots that look at the cell phone or the computer all the time. It has happened that many people are unproductive because they spend more than 4 hours on social networks. Being addicted to what happens on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram leave their work obligations and do not produce. Or at a meeting, they do not pay attention to the commitments made and that can delay a whole project and put the company at risk.

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That does not have to be like this …

So it is not a problem of technology, it does not have to be good or bad, it is the use and abuse of it that complicates our way of relating to others and we are the ones in control. It is simply to stop spending so much time connected and learn to enjoy other things in life.

A study by the firm Sodexo Colombia concluded that Colombians associate aspects of time, family and tranquility more with Quality of Life. According to a survey carried out on social networks for different population groups, 87% of the people responded that Quality of Life is compenetrate to share as a family. 34.1% indicated that it refers to having a good job; 32.2% associated it with health; 22.5% with having a good salary; and 21.7% with having purchasing power.

Additionally, when asked to name the first term that comes to mind when thinking about Quality of Life, 17% said Tranquility; 15.57%, Well-being; 11.95%, Happiness; 10.14%, Time; 5.79%, Stability; 5.07%, Family; 4.34%, Health; 4.34% Balance and Balance; 2.53%, Evolution; 2.89%, Economic Solvency; 1.81%, Freedom; 1.08%, Comfort; 1.08%, Satisfaction; and 17.32%, referred to other terms.

“It is evident that people ponder issues such as time to share with family, happiness, stability, and health, and to that extent, it is important that the development plans of people within the companies include activities that strengthen these areas of human development “, explained Adriana Salcedo, Country President of Sodexo Colombia.

But how to achieve quality life?

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A simple daily exercise or take the reins and change that annoying habit of watching television or sticking to the cell phone can consistently improve your future. Pay close attention to what it is because it may seem simple but very difficult to reach since you can be reading this from a screen. It’s about dropping that device and taking a sheet from a notebook to do the following.

Take only 30 seconds of the day to write down in your notebook what conclusion you reached and what you can do to improve. The advice comes from an article written for Weforum.org by Pilar Jericó, taken from El País newspaper in Spain on how to learn from the books we read, the classes we take, the advice we receive. As it happened to her, everything was forgotten as if by magic and the next day she could barely remember what it was like.

She says that with 30 seconds the future can be drastically improved and, after each meeting or class, after a book, we must briefly write down our conclusions.

“It is not about collecting the main points or a summary of what has been lived,” says the author, “because surely we will forget. We have to write our reflections and “hot”, without waiting to get home. And the reason for doing it is that we work with two types of memory: the work and the long term, “he explained.

We have to do it that way because working memory is consciously activated when we do something. It is located in the prefrontal cortex and is capable of containing four pieces of information at the same time (it was previously thought that there were seven). Only a small portion of what goes into our working memory we are able to take it to the long-term, which stores memories and information for years.

The reinforcement so that an information remains in time is to work it in a conscious way, selecting the essential and reviewing the conclusions from time to time. These conclusions or ‘chunks’ (as they say in the language of neuroscience) are a piece that acts as ingredients to make future decisions. And he supports his argument with examples of successful people who have this habit.

Anxo Pérez, a Spanish businessman with a great career, speaks 9 languages and plays 9 musical instruments. Since he was 16 he started with languages and has several books about his success. The key to everything is that when you get into a language you take a notebook and just write down the words you think are essential. He does not leave his notes and review them every day. This forces us to discard, focus only on the pieces of key information and get to speak several disparate languages such as Chinese and Russian.

Another bright person who met Jericho, ended each meeting with a question ‘What have we learned today?’ and the assistants reflected on the conversation with him and also wrote down everything in a small notebook. This is something that you can do with yourself and with your children, to help them remember what they have lived and train their minds, to relativize their mistakes and understand that everything can be an opportunity to learn and improve.

The habit of 30 seconds is not only to take notes and notes but to think what is central to the experiences lived, to point them out and review them daily. You will see that with a support such as a notebook or a mobile application you will be able to remember the good things and go back over the bad things to recognize what went wrong when you had errors.

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How to increase sales of your mipyme in the tourism sector?

2018 has broken historical records in visits of foreigners to Colombia so that its tourist activities business can get to see great profitability, especially if it is encouraged to transform digitally.

The tourism sector is one of the most competitive in the country, but at the same time, one of the fastest growing year after year. In the first quarter of this year, the sector’s share of GDP was 6.9 %, while in 2017 it was only 1.6%, a growth that leaves any economist speechless.

In addition, purchases of goods and services by non-resident travelers reached $ 3,530 million dollars in the first half of this year, 12% more than in the same period of 2017.

Entrepreneurs in this sector have seen large multinationals such as Airbnb and Booking reached a strong reception so that small and medium entrepreneurs have a great challenge: to become a digital world.

And the figures show that it is a reconversion that is needed most urgently. According to figures from Migración Colombia, during the whole of 2018, a total of 3.1 million foreign visitors entered the country.

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Paula Cortés, president of the Colombian Association of Travel and Tourism Agencies (Anato), affirms that, “if the trend continues in this way, we would close the year with a figure higher than 4 million foreign tourists, based on data from Migration Colombia, that is, an increase of 19.5% when compared to 2017, whose figure was 3.3 million people “.

Achieving digital transformation

Pablo Mendoza, CMO and Business Intelligence Manager of the A3SEC Group states that in order for your business to succeed in this challenge it must take into account 5 essential factors: think digital, build efficient business models, put the customer at the center of the entire strategy, employ open source technologies (collaborative) and exploit Big Data opportunities . “Who does not digitize and reinvent, in a short time will end up being irrelevant,” he says.

Therefore, initiatives that encourage entrepreneurs to modernize are essential. Eduardo Maldonado, general manager of Tourbitz, software for tour operators, affirms that “an important problem is that SME tourism entrepreneurs continue to carry their entire operation in pencil and paper or at best in Excel. They have a lot of information that they keep filling by hand and that makes their operation complicated, prone to human errors and have slower response times by international standards. ”

In 2017, the Tourist Information Center of Colombia (Citur) accounted for 27,206 tourism service operators in the country, from travel agencies and accommodation and lodging establishments to theme parks and tour operators.

And although the look always tends to go to the hotel sector, the tours and activities are one of the main interests of foreigners who seek to know all the ecological, cultural and gastronomic wonders that the country offers.

“It is one of the most dynamic segments of the tourism sector with a lot of potentials, in 2020 there will be almost 180 billion dollars for this market worldwide where 20% will be transacted online , and in Latin America we see that The number of online transactions of this type of companies is in the order of 5% “.

For this reason, Maldonado decided to create this platform, after having made part of Procolombia and seeing all its potential. “We want to help the tour operators in the whole issue of digital transformation in an integral way. Many times we talk about this and we think it is to have a website with a shopping cart but it is really much deeper, is that through technology we can leverage the operation to scale the business orders to larger magnitude, “he says.

How does it work?

In the portal, tour operators can upload all the inventory of tours they have available, focused on standardized activities such as a gastronomic tour in Bogotá, departures in the Coffee Region, trekking in Salento, Quindío, hiking in the snow park in Manizales, or bicycle tours in Medellín.

People can start to transact through a module that in less than 5 minutes allows them to give a quote, which is quite efficient because the old-guard businesses tend to take between half an hour and an hour to deliver a quote. Then they send the client a payment link so that the person can make the transaction.

“When you buy, you automatically generate an invoice for those companies that are a common system, an equivalent document for those companies that are simplified, we create electronic tickets, we allow you to see the reservations through a calendar view , we let you have reports of all transactions and also analytics in real time “.

In the future, entrepreneurship hopes to be able to involve also suppliers, such as the guide, transport and in some cases for tours that are longer than one day, hotels. “The idea is that once in the reservation we are automatically sending text messages and mail to these providers and Uber type, the first to accept the reservation is the one that stays with it. This looking to automate this process that normally was to pick up a phone and start dialing guide 1 and guide 2, “he says.

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And about the great power that other platforms have, Maldonado, hopes to be able to involve it to give entrepreneurs the opportunity to expand their sales much more. “We want to have integration with Tripadvisor, Viator, Expedia, Get Your guide, which is the leaders of the online tours and activities market in the world to help them also sell from their channels.”

“We also have a widget so that they can have all the inventory they upload to Tourbitz on their own website easily with a cart so that in 3 steps the customer can buy.”

This software currently works with 15 tour operators and has 200 tours on the platform. “This type of companies, do not have too many resources to bet on technology, then the model we have been working with is that we do not charge any membership or permanency clause, but it is a pay as you go model, that is, we charge one fee per transaction, and we only start to win at the moment the company starts to win. ”

The platform charges a commission of 10%, but Maldonado says that this will be adjusted until reaching a flexible model where the sales volume will be charged commission.

” Our idea is to reach 10% of the market, that is, to be working with approximately 250 tour operators in Colombia. In sales we expect to close 2019 with more or less one million dollars in transactions “, concludes the businessman.

So you know, if your business or that of your family operates on this front, maybe it’s time you start to reflect on all the opportunities that digital transformation has to offer.

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The Spanish risk premium drops to 76 points due to the rise in the German bond

The Spanish risk premium has started the session at 76 basis points, one less than yesterday, due mainly to the rebound in the interest of the German ten-year bond with which it is calculated, which stood at 0.581% against the 0,569% previous.

According to market data collected by Efe, interest on the 10-year domestic bond also rose, but more moderately, to 1.346% from the previous 1.341%.

On the agenda of the day, the Bank of Spain updates its macroeconomic projections, after which in December it will cut its growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 by one-tenth, to 2.4% and 2.1%, as a consequence of the uncertainty in Catalonia.

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In addition, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) publishes its index of investor confidence in Germany in March.

In the US, the central bank or Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its monetary policy meeting for two days, at the end of which it could announce a rate hike that the market has already foreseen.

In Buenos Aires, the Ministers of Economy and the presidents of the central banks of the G20 countries finish their first meeting of the year, focused on discussing the future of work and infrastructures for development.

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In the rest of the countries considered peripheral in the euro area, the Italian risk premium fell to 139 points at the beginning of the session, like that of Portugal, which yielded a whole and remained at 116.

It also improved at this time at one point the country risk of Greece, up to 361 whole.

Spanish default credit insurance (“credit default swaps”), an amount that must be paid to guarantee an investment of 10 million dollars, was cheaper up to 76,210 dollars, compared to the 155,100 dollars of the Italians.

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